Balsa J. 2002. Ventajas y Limitaciones de la Metodología de Inferencia Ecológica propuesta por G. King. Cinta moebio 13: 33-57

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Advantages and limitations of King´s method for ecological inferences

Javier Balsa (jjbalsa@isis.unlp.edu.ar). UNLP-CONICET, Argentina

Abstract

The ecological inference tries to estimate the individual behavior from aggregate data. In this article, King's new methodology for dealing with ecological inference will be applied to estimated the proportion of workers who voted for Perón in 1946. Data of the national census of 1947 about the Federal District and Buenos Aires Province are used. In a second section, I point out some limitations of King's methodology when data distribution does not help to make acceptable estimations. In the last section, I show one of the greatest advantages of this methodology. Since it provides estimations not only for the whole region but also for each of the districts which conform the region, it is possible to study the covariations between the estimated variable and other explanatory variables (in this example, the growing population rates of the districts).